Solo Bitcoin Mining Probability Calculator
What are your chances of finding a Bitcoin block solo? Enter your hashrate and see the real odds — daily, weekly, and yearly — compared to lottery probabilities.
Understanding Solo Bitcoin Mining
Solo mining means competing directly against every miner on the Bitcoin network for the full 3.125 BTC block reward. Your probability per block equals your hashrate divided by the total network hashrate. With the Bitcoin network exceeding 900 EH/s in 2026, a 234 TH/s Antminer S21 Pro has roughly a 1-in-11-million chance per block — about 80 years expected wait time.
Most individual miners use pool mining for predictable daily income instead. Solo mining is essentially a lottery — mathematically fair over infinite time, but impractical for typical home miners who need cash flow to cover electricity costs.
Solo Mining vs Pool Mining: Compared
Pool Mining
- Predictable daily income proportional to your hashrate
- Rewards paid out daily regardless of block finds
- Pool fee of 1–3% deducted from earnings
- Works for any hashrate size from 1 TH/s up
- Best for miners who need steady cash flow for electricity
Solo Mining
- Full 3.125 BTC reward if you find a block
- Zero pool fees — keep 100% of what you mine
- Extreme variance — could wait decades between wins
- Only practical at multi-petahash scale operations
- High risk — not recommended for electricity-dependent miners
Which Coins Have Better Solo Mining Odds?
Bitcoin is the hardest coin to solo mine due to its enormous network hashrate. Smaller proof-of-work coins with lower network difficulty offer individual miners much better solo mining odds and block probability:
| Coin | Algorithm | Network Hashrate | Solo Mining Feasibility |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | SHA-256 | ~900 EH/s | Practically impossible individually |
| Litecoin (LTC) | Scrypt | ~800 TH/s | Very difficult |
| Kaspa (KAS) | KHeavyHash | ~1 EH/s | Possible with several miners |
| Handshake (HNS) | Handshake | ~3 PH/s | Feasible with a dedicated ASIC |
| Alephium (ALPH) | Blake3 | ~500 TH/s | Reasonable odds with multiple miners |
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the chances of solo mining a block? +
At 234 TH/s your chance per block is roughly 1 in 11 million. Expected time to find one block solo is about 80 years. Most miners join pools for steady daily income instead.
Is solo mining worth it in 2026? +
Solo mining is only practical with very large hashrate (multiple petahash) or for altcoins with low difficulty. For most miners, pool mining provides consistent daily income. This calculator shows your exact odds.
What is the difference between solo mining and pool mining? +
Solo mining competes alone for the full 3.125 BTC reward with high variance. Pool mining splits rewards proportionally every day giving predictable daily income — most miners prefer pools.